Most people don't understand probability. We're not wired to understand it. Happy Birthday!
A study of statistics will show you that all kinds of improbable, random occurrences happen all the time. Why? It's the law of BIG NUMBERS.
For example, did you know that literally thousands of lightning bolts strike the earth every minute of every day? What are the odds some of them will hit and maybe kill someone?
It's impossible to calculate, but it happens. There is so much lightning, and billions of people! It's bound to happen, and it happens a lot! National Geographic reports that 2,000 people are killed by lightning each year around the world. Google reports that an average of 49 are killed in the USA by lightning, and hundreds more are struck but don’t die.
It’s odd, but religious people see random events as miracles when in fact they are just accidents of nature.
Did you know that if you are dealt a bridge hand from a properly shuffled deck of cards, it is likely that NO ONE HAS EVER BEEN DEALT that same bridge hand in the history of the world?
Is it a miracle you got it? No. It's just probability. Want another one? Sure! I can make miracles all day long! (Just give me a deck of cards!)
I want to leave you with one more amazing fact.
I can tell you the probability that you were born! (It’s just a little biology.) The only assumption I have to make is that your father met your mother, and they had sex. OK, I admit that’s a big assumption, and that’s impossible to calculate, so read on.
All of us have twenty three pairs of chromosomes for a total of 46 of them. You get twenty three from your mother, and twenty three from your father.
When a sperm or egg is made, each of the twenty three chromosome pairs is split in half, and the resulting sperm or egg will get either the A chromosome or the B chromosome from that single pair. The splitting process continues for each of the twenty three pairs to make up the egg or the sperm.
When each pair is split, it means you will get one out of two, (the A or the B chromosome.) All we have to do is multiply the probability of getting each unique pair of twenty three chromosomes, which is 2²³. (That’s 2 raised to the power of 23, which is the probability of creating a unique egg or sperm.)
We must do this for BOTH the egg AND the sperm, so the probability becomes 2²³ * 2²³ = 2⁴⁶. (When you multiply powers, you just add the exponents… Yeah, it’s just math!)
So what is 2⁴⁶? Punch it out on your calculator, and you will see the result is 70,368,744,177,664! That’s OVER 70 Trillion!
This means each fertile man and woman has the ability to create over 70 trillion genetically unique individuals. I know, it’s staggering!
When your parents made you, they had a one in 70 trillion chance of getting you instead of your brother or your sister! It’s just like being dealt the unique bridge hand. Getting any particular combination is so highly improbable, it’s a wonder that you are here!
Consider there are about 7.5 billion people on the planet at the moment, which means that each fertile couple could potentially create over nine thousand times (9,382) the population of the entire world!
And this assumes that your Mom said yes to your Dad! Wow! You almost didn’t make it! That was a close one! ha, ha!
What’s the conclusion?
Smile. Be glad you are here! Celebrate yourself all year long, and especially on your birthday.
This is me telling you, “Happy Birthday!”
